A FORESIGHT ANALYSIS OF CONFLICT IN EUROPEAN AGRICULTURE :
THREE SCENARIOS IN AN ERA OF SHIFTING POWER DYNAMICS
Summary
A FORESIGHT ANALYSIS OF CONFLICT IN EUROPEAN AGRICULTURE
This study, published in French, examines the future of European agricultural policy in a context of growing geopolitical tensions, economic competition and shifting international power relations. Focusing on the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), it explores three possible scenarios: full renationalisation, partial renationalisation and full federalisation. Each scenario is assessed in terms of its consequences for national sovereignty, agricultural competitiveness, food security and the distribution of economic power across Europe.
Through an analysis of the different agricultural structures and interests of European nations, the study highlights the risks associated with unequal national resources, unfair competition, strategic dependencies and the concentration of agricultural value chains. It demonstrates that neither the complete dismantling of the common agricultural framework nor the centralisation of agricultural decision-making in Brussels would eliminate existing tensions. Instead, it underlines the importance of reconciling national sovereignty and democratic accountability with effective cooperation between European nations to safeguard their agricultural production and food security.